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EV industry 2022 predictions – I made a spreadsheet – The Battery Report

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I wish you an electric 2022!

So much great EV stuff to share with you. I'm stil up at 5 am to write this to you - and it's absolutely worth it.

In the newsletter below, you'll find:

  • All 2021 EV sales (OEMs, countries) that have been reported publicly so far. It's Spreadsheet Building Time!
  • Bold predictions of the EV industry in 2022 from our members and Friends of the EV Universe from across the galaxy industry.
  • An awesome detailed report on the Battery scene of 2021.

Grab a coffee and let's go!

✌️

- Jaan


I did a thing

You probably know by now, that I love spreadsheets by now.

You probably know I love big picture EV resources by now.

I ran into a problem when putting today's newsletter together.

Problem

See, I wanted to give you an overview of what we know about 2021 EV sales so far... and then found out it's damn near impossible to show you.

The (ev)news portals out there are doing a great job reporting all the EV sales numbers automakers have published so far --- but separately, each in their own article and spread across all the news outlets. I couldn't get a clear picture of the industry.

At the same time, I've got no plan to compete with the professional teams that do the (good) deeper work, but also hit us with $$$-$,$$$ price tags.

Solution

So as usual, I went out and created one myself.

The Global BEV 2021 Sales spreadsheet maps the EV sales (no hybrids) by automakers and countries, their yearly growth, and the best-selling models for each maker or country.

Spreadsheet

Traction

So far, I've gone through 50+ sources and put in 272 cells worth of data in a spreadsheet. Took me the whole day.

That's 18 countries and 26 automakers. I'm hoping to find some support for updating the data. Crowdsource it, as we've done in the past.

So what do we have so far?

See for yourself:

Global BEV 2021 Sales Sheet

You can find the sources and more info on the Google Sheet if you want to dig deeper on any. Here are my takeaways so far:

China

China is frunking wonderful. 2,734,000 BEVs in 2021, growing 174% from 2020 and reaching a market share of 10.5%. I enjoyed Michael J. Dunne's (ZoZo Go) take on why China will keep the EV lead:

  • Subsidies are no longer a factor, great EV makers (BYD, Nio, XPeng, Tesla) are igniting real demand.
  • China's Campaign Culture works - the central government has real power to ignite mass campaigns, which comes with its own problems but can also really work.
  • Global carmakers need to be fighting to stay relevant in the Chinese auto market, which in turn means they'll bring their A-game (or... E-game?). Consumer wins.

Europe

We all know Norway is the name of the game.

🥇 In 2021, 113,751 EVs were registered in Norway, growing 48% from the year before. The (battery)-EVs made up a crazy 64.50% of all sales. I'm fairly certain that we'll start seeing near-100% months this year already. The 2025 ICE ban in Norway will be redundant.

🥈 The biggest auto market in Europe - Germany - is growing fast too. 356k EV sales were registered in 2021, which means it almost doubled from 2020, growing 83%. Market share hovers at 13.60% now.

🥉 The UK is not too far behind either, with 190k EVs, 76% growth, and 11.6% market share.

I mapped another 13 European countries and Australia. The latter has a 1.18% market share for EVs, with 12k sales. It's growing fast though - 138% YoY. The only country (except China) that comes close to the growth is Finland, with 139% yearly growth to 10k vehicles - and since it's a bit smaller, it has a 10.3% market penetration. I'm happy for you, my neighbors up north.

Netherlands & Sweden caught my eyes with a surprisingly high market share - above 19%.

Meanwhile, my little Estonia rocks a 43% growth with... 512 vehicles and a 3.3% market share. Latvia is roughly in the same spot.

The picture with best-selling EV models is quite clear.  In 6 of the 13 markets where I found the data for EV models specifically, Tesla Model 3 was the best-selling EV. In another four, it was present in the top 3. Imagine what will happen when Giga Berlin starts pumping out those Model Ys this year.

I couldn't find any US regional data yet that wasn't a random estimation. Hopefully, we'll have something soon.

Automakers

Now, this is fun.

🥇 Tesla delivered 936,172 EVs in 2021, growing 87% from last year. Tesla is the Norway of automakers.

Guess how far the second maker was?

🥈 Volkswagen Group (Audi, Porsche, Škoda, VW...) is in second place with 452,900 models delivered. VW takes up 263k of this.

🥉 Third place, or 2nd for automakers-not-groups, is BYD with 322,983 models. BYD is very much still in the game, as its BEV sales grew 145% this year.

Some noteworthy ones: Rivian managed to pump out 920 EVs before the year's end. Volvo Cars totaled 24k (growing 452%), and Porsche sold more Taycans (41.3k) than it did 911s.

Here's the spreadsheet again (link). Also - spread the word! I'd love as many eyeballs on it as possible.


What will 2022 bring for EVs?

I'm happy that I got to know so many awesome EV people last year. Perks of the 'job', I guess. I asked some of you as the friends of the EV Universe: what's your bold prediction for the EV industry in 2022?

Tom Selten, BD & Policy at Lightyear, has a pretty bold prediction:

Tom
In 2022 we will witness the first human ever to drive a full commute (±50 kilometers) on solar energy directly powered from its vehicle. Also, I predict we will have the first fines for electric vehicles parked for too long at public charging stations.

Reilly Brennan, founding General Partner at Trucks VC (Jaan: and author of the badass trucks.vc transportation newsletter you should subscribe to) talks about software in EVs:

Reilly
My prediction is that there will be multiple $1B software companies in EVs. I think a lot of the focus -- rightfully so for this era of the wave -- has been on new hardware firms for vehicles and charging. But if you look at fields like battery management, there is something that runs on every battery and manages units remotely (we have an investment in this space which is still undisclosed).

Gary Heaton, one of our members and the President of Drive Electric Cincinnati predicts wait times:

Gary
The problem of EV buyers waiting a long time for their vehicle delivery will get worse rather than better for much of 2022.

Andre Tättar, our friend often helping us out with EV stock analysis, hopes the markets grow on growth companies:

Andre
I am excited about seeing the sale numbers of EV companies and how the markets will react. I hope that the stock market will react a bit better towards growth companies

→ I'll share some of my own predictions too:

  • It's now battery makers' turn to rush going public via IPOs and SPACs.
  • The corporate and delivery fleets will start to go electric, hard. Watch Rivian, Brightdrop, Arrival.
  • Same goes with bus fleets. Massive fleets will announce switching to e-buses. Even Moscow has 1k e-buses now. Watch BYD, Proterra.
  • Any new Lithium development, including far-fetched tech, will be grabbed by OEMs and battery makers. Lots of acquisitions/JVs.
  • Battery price levels out because battery mineral prices continue to rise.
  • Battery recyclers and anything connected to it gets a HUGE boost. I can't stress this enough. Their pace will be supercharged due to the mineral price hike, scarcity, and growing EV stock. Batteries are becoming an asset, not a waste. Watch Redwood Materials, Li-Cycle, and ABTC. Also Cling Systems with its B2B battery marketplace.

We'll see some more friends come on next week. If you've got a bold prediction for us, reply to this newsletter.

Sidenote: Tom just shared that as the first-ever of its kind, The Dutch gov has introduced a Solar EV Factor for a tax deduction. If you buy a solar EV, you can get a 36% deduction on the taxable profit. The biggest winners will probably be Lightyear, Sono Motors, and Aptera? Watch asom.solar solar EV lobby group is gaining momentum.

Solar vehicle factor


The Battery Report 2021

Battery Reüprt

It's getting difficult to keep up with the fast pace the battery industry is moving at, right alongside the EV revolution.

Here's a report that gives you a good overview of where we're at and what have been the biggest developments in the industry, a lot of which we've covered (but fragmented) here through the year too.

OEM Roadmaps

Surprise-surprise, this one comes from our friends at Intercalation Station and Battery Brunch / Volta Foundation. I love how the battery community comes together & produces stuff like this.

Nicholas Yiu, a reader and friend of The EV Universe is one of the key people behind this report. Here's his comment for us:

The battery industry is growing and changing at such a rapid pace that it's pretty difficult to keep up to speed. In addition, a battery isn't just a battery, but is a combination of so many moving pieces from the greater supply chain.
I hope this can be used as a semi 'cheatsheet' to get to know the industry efficiently, so we can all have important conversations with more stakeholders! A big part includes readers at EV Universe and hopefully provides more insight into batteries for you all.

I feel like I've got so much to learn from this report. And I'll be able to improve the Map of the Industry from this too. Thanks for putting it together!

130-slide overview deck of the battery industry: (link)


Tim's shoutout

Tim

Introducing: Tim Benford, the President of Drive Electric Dayton (Ohio) and a former VP of Electric Auto Association, one of the founding members of our pro community. He drives a Tesla Model 3. Tim has got a well-earned shoutout in the bank and decided to use it for a little pep talk:

Pledge to make your next vehicle an EV. It’s the most enjoyable way to help repair the climate by reducing your personal carbon footprint. It’s going to take efforts from everyone to save humanity! 😉

Thanks for being with us, Tim, and for helping the EV adoption cause as an EV ambassador!


I couldn't fit our regular industry news in the newsletter today. Sorry. I'll be sharing more news stuff on the industry² newsletter tomorrow (members only), and we'll return to normal next week on this one too.


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