8 min read

EV Industry² | Who is GM trying to fool? – Tesla's annual meeting recap

General Motors... really?

GM vs TEsla

GM revealed some big plans on Investor Day on Wednesday. (link) From Automaker to Platform Innovator, they called it.

The CEO Mary Barra said the company is planning to double its revenue by 2030, to about $280B. Of which, $90B would come from EVs. About $9B to $10B would be spent on EVs while still returning money to shareholders.

I'm all for big EV plans, but then Barra claimed something like this: "We'll become a leader in the US EV sales in 2030."

This got me thinking - could they catch Tesla? Or is it just a fun thing to say for a future date as nobody knows what'll happen?

I dug a bit deeper, did some oversimplification but optimistic calculations on the GM side, and pessimistic on Tesla side. Here's what I found (best seen on this Twitter thread):

  1. The GM's $90B EV revenue in 2030 would mean roughly 2.25M EVs, optimistically, per year.
  2. Tesla's pessimistic assumptions would put it at 278k EVs per year in the US in 2021... you know, chip shortages and stuff.
  3. With Tesla's current 71% CAGR, it would reach 2.25M EVs already in 2025, beating GM's target by 5 years. With a more conservative target (50% CAGR), Tesla would get there in 2027.

My verdict, in meme format:

DOUBT meme

Ok, moving on.


Tesla's Annual Shareholder Meeting

Tesla held its 2021 Annual Meeting of Stockholders today/yesterday. livestream (here) and the shareholder questions (here). I timestamped the video to when Elon comes on stage - if you're curious you can go back a bit:

Some key takeaways that you should know:

Headquarters moving

Tesla is moving its headquarters to Austin, Texas from Palo Alto, California. “We are continuing to expand our presence in California, we are not leaving California, but we are hitting the sides of the bowl.”

A whole backstory here includes a state Assemblywoman Lorena Gonzalez in good old California, tweeting last year: F*ck Elon Musk.

She also elaborated on why (here). This was in response to Musk saying Tesla is filing a lawsuit against Alameda County, due to restricted reopening during the pandemic.

Here's the Lorena tweet which did age well, as Tesla is now indeed... leaving.

Also, something noteworthy - Texas has 0% Corporate Income Tax vs the 8.84% in California.

Giga Shanghai > Fremont Factory

Tesla Giga Shanghai has officially exceeded the Fremont Factory’s output, he said. It took roughly 11 months to build, reaching full volume a year later. Musk said "So it’s the best quality, lowest cost, and also low drama. So it’s great."

Productions

Volume production of the Cybertruck starts in 2023. The production of the Tesla Semi and Roadster start in 2023. Model Y in Texas late next year.

The 4680 Battery cell pilot production line of 10GW/year is up and running near the Fremont factory and will start volume production in Texas late next year.

The CyberQuad ATV will probably be made along Cybertruck in Texas and Tesla aims to make the least dangerous ATV [...], It's going to be the ATV that won't roll [over].

Graphs, Growth

The deliveries are growing at 71% CAGR and there have been 800k deliveries in the past 12 months. If Q3 were to be focused on, the annualized run rate would be near 1M/year.

CAGR

Model 3 became the best-selling premium vehicle globally:

M3

FSD Beta

A little over 1k owners have gotten a perfect safety score (something that Tesla launched as a judge whether the driver is a safe driver) and will get access to the Beta.

Here's a visual from Tesla representing their move to Texas. I'd love one as a belt buckle.

Tesla logo

🌎 Companies & Global

  • A full tour of the different Lucid Motors facilities via Electrek. (link)
  • A Tesla Model S driver in China sued Tesla for fraud after he claimed that Tesla misrepresented the condition of the (used) car at the time of purchase... and won.
    Tesla didn't disclose the information that the car had undergone significant repairs due to a crash. Payout - $233k. Tesla issued an appeal but wasn't successful. (link)
  • Nikola had a $2B lawsuit against Tesla that it seems to have let go. It had until the 6th of October to show cause in writing or the case would be dismissed. (link) I haven't heard of any development so we can assume it's case closed.
  • Stellantis has decided to prioritize the manufacturing of electric vehicles in Europe over combustion-engine models amid chip shortages. (link)
  • Workhorse Group announced an overhaul of executive leadership appointments, to "transition from an advanced technology start-up to an efficient manufacturing company" (link):
  • The interim CFO will be Greg Ackerson, who previously was the Corporate Controller.
    CAO is now Jim Harrington, formerly in Delphi Technologies.
    CTO Josh Anderson, formerly at Founder and President of Leiten.
    VP of Purchasing and Supply Chain will be Jim Peters, formerly at American Axle & Manufacturing
    VP of Product and Development will be Dave Bjerke, formerly President of Triad Services Group.
    The COO Rob Willison has left the company and the role will be eliminated.

    All but Dave will be reporting directly to Rick Dauch, the CEO.
  • Markus Duesmann, the CEO of Audi, said that EVs are now almost as profitable for Audi as its other cars. "The point where we earn as much money with electric cars as with combustion engine cars is now, or ... next year, 2023. They are very even now, the prices." (link)
  • Nikola entered into another deal with Tumim Stone Capital to sell $300 million of its stock, taking the total to up to $600 million. (link)
  • One of the largest ever heavy electric truck orders was placed - DFDS ordered a fleet of 100 Volvo FM and will hit European roads during 2022 and 2023. (link)
DFDS and Volvo
  • Geely began mass production of its commercial satellites. Geely plans to utilize commercial satellites to support high-speed data connectivity, highly precise navigation, and cloud computing capabilities in future vehicles. (link)

    Looks like another little trend is brewing. Tesla = Starlink, Volvo/Polestar/Geely = Geely Satellites? Who else?
Geely Satellite


🚗 Models

BD EV410
  • First BrightDrop EV600 electric delivery vans have been produced, which is the fastest vehicle built from concept-to-commercialization. The new EV410 (above) was also released, a smaller but similar mid-size eLCV. Verizon will be the first customer. (link)
  • A developer managed to get Android Auto working in Tesla vehicles through the web browser and an app on Google Play (link).
  • A drive with the XPENG P5 in China. A car that I'm anxiously waiting to be available in Europe - I expect it to be a rather cold shower to European automakers.
  • Hummer EV looks to have had a press event, we've got a bunch of videos out. Here's Autoblog's:
  • Piech GT Electric Grand Tourer has entered the testing phase, will be here in 2024. You know I'm a sucker for futuretro cars. This is one for sure.


🔋 Battery, Mining and ♻ Recycling

DOE battery pack costs
  • The Department of Energy (DOE) in the US claims battery pack costs have decreased 87% since 2008 (link). The preliminary data put the 2021 cost levels at $157/kWh on usable and $143/kWh on total battery capacity.  The number was a whopping $1,237/kWh (usable) back in 2008. (link)
  • GM announced a new battery facility to develop lithium-metal and solid-state cells in GM's Global Technical Center in Warren, Michigan. (link)
  • GM signed an MoU with General Electric for the supply of rare earth materials used in EVs and improving supplies of magnets, copper, and electrical steel. (link)
  • CATL grabs Lithium: buys Millenial Lithium, a Canadian company with two mining projects in Argentina, for $299M.
    CATL also has its hands in Neo Lithium Corp; North American Nickel, and Pilbara Minerals. We'll see WAY more of that in the coming years.
  • LG ES signs a long-term lithium supply deal with Sigma Lithium, the Canadian mining company operating a lithium mine in Brazil, for a total of 360 tonnes from 2023 to 2027. (link)

    As far as I know, LGES has other battery-related purchase agreements with Vulcan Energy, Queensland Pacific Metals, and Australian Mines Limited.
  • SK Innovation now birthed SK On, its wholly-owned subsidiary that plans to become the world's largest EV battery supplier. The order backlog exceeds 1,000 GWh (that's about 20M electric cars with 50kWh batteries!).

⚡ Charging

Right-to-Charge US map
  • A Maryland Right-to-Charge law for homeowners and condo residents went into effect. This means the HOAs and condo boards are prohibited to deny permission for a homeowner to install an electric vehicle charging station within certain guidelines. Maryland now joins 8 other states, as detailed in the picture above. (link)
  • GM's investor day announced an increase in the investment in charging infrastructure to nearly $750M through 2025 via Ultium Charge 360.
  • Genesis GV60 gets a factory-installed wireless charging option, supplied by WiTricity. (link) Great to see WiTricity achieving the first commercially available solution.
  • Shanghai is packed with Superchargers. Tesla finished the construction of the 100th Supercharger location in the city and now has 1,000 individual Superchargers there. (link)
  • bp ventures invested $13 million in integrated EV ride-hailing and charging company BluSmart. It led the $25 million Series A (link).

👀 Tweet of the week

A little something from the $TSLA bulls, Cathie Wood of the ARKinvest, which has about 10% of its portfolio set in $TSLA and recently set a $3k price target to it.


You can ☕ buy me a coffee to add zap to my writing to keep me going. ⚡

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