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#30| 💳 EVs cheaper than petrol by 2027 – Elon Musk on SNL – Tesla Lithium consumption 🔋

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| Weekly #30 |

Thank you all who opted-in to be early testers / contributors to the new resource: the Map of the EV Universe.

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Oh, and a little teaser - I'm just up the transcription of the interview with Matt and Ryan from AmpUp. You'll have an interview and a podcast version next week.

– Jaan



Arrival-Uber car
Image: Arrival

ARRIVAL, the British electric van and bus maker and UBER announced The Arrival Car, an EV specifically for ride-hailing, due in Q3 2023 (link).

STELLANTIS says it will meet European emission rules in 2021 without the help of Tesla - meaning one of the biggest buyers of emissions credits from Tesla drops out. Tesla has made $518M in the Q1 of 2021 from credit sales (link). Not that it would be make-or-break for Tesla, but notable still.

ARRIVAL and UBER announced The Arrival Car, an EV specifically for ride-hailing. Due in Q3 2023,

IRP Systems, the provider of electric powertrain solutions for e-mobility, announced a $31M Series C round, led by Clal Insurance and Altshuler Shaman (link).

MERCEDES-BENZ CEO Ola Källenius says the firm will continue producing combustion engines while they remain commercially viable, but will be ready to switch to pure electrification as soon as it makes sense (link):

When that point comes, we will be ready, and we will not hesitate for nostalgic reasons to switch over to the new technology 100%.

TESLA applied to join the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) renewable credit market, which has been dominated so far by ethanol producers. The market generated ~18B credits in 2020 and is expected to be reviewed by the Biden administration for potential inclusion of EVs. (link) The ones buying the credits are often the petrochemical refiners, which might be put out of business eventually by the very same sellers like Tesla.

Elon Musk both killed the option of paying for Tesla with Bitcoin due to environmental concerns (link) and put up a vote if the buyers want to use Dogecoin (link) this week. There are 4M votes with 78.2% "Yes" right now, since you asked.

The NTSB investigation into the deadly Tesla Model S crash killing two in Texas has reached a preliminary conclusion. This crash gained a lot of media attention which mainly reported the car being on Autopilot and the driver in the backseat. NTSB concluded the Autopilot was not engaged. Per a video, the car had traveled only 550 feet (167 meters) from its house, where the driver sat into the drivers' seat and accelerated out of view. (link)

FUNNY OR NOT? Before Elon Musk got into electric cars... he was just the good old Lon Musk.

Meanwhile, TESLA's Q2 full production capacity is allegedly already sold out (link).

GORDON MURRAY GROUP announced a $424M investment to produce "the world’s lightest, most efficient and advanced EVs" (link).

NISSAN to start V2G for Australian LEAF owners already at the end of the year, with the bi-directional charger waiting for regulatory approval within the next few months (link).

DAYMARK claims it has over $300M in preorder commitments for its Avvenire line EVs (link).

CATL invested in Aiways, China's EV startup (link).



BNEF & TE study
Image: T&E

EVs will be cheaper than petrol cars in all segments by 2027, a BloombergNEF study commissioned by T&E found. The senior director for vehicles and emobility at T&E, Julia Poliscanova said (link):

EVs will be a reality for all new buyers within six years. They will be cheaper than combustion engines for everyone, from the man with a van in Berlin to the family living in the Romanian countryside. Electric vehicles are not only better for the climate and Europe’s industrial leadership, but for the economy too.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) launched its 2021 report for the global EV outlook. I mentioned IEA's last report on the very first newsletter (here's the #1: (link)).Key takeaways (link):

  • Roughly 3M new EVs were registered last year, a 41% rise compared to 2019.
  • Total stock of EV passenger cars should be over 10M, plus about 1M electric buses, vans and heavy trucks.
  • IEA expects the number of electric cars, buses, vans and heavy trucks on the road to hit 145M units by 2030.
  • Consumer spending on EVs in 2020 totaled $120B, with gov supports at $14B, the latter being the 5th year in a row the share of support-to-total-amount decreasing.
  • I remember from the last IEA report they estimated EV sales to have a 3% share in global car sales in 2020. Now they reported it was 4.6%, so we might assume a slight underestimation for the future.

The Electrification Coalition delivered a letter to Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer on Wednesday, urging the governor to join the Multi-State Medium- and Heavy-Duty Zero Emission Vehicle MoU. The Coalition includes 58 businesses like Rivian, Volvo, EVgo, Lordstown and Arrival among others (link).

The entire US transit fleet could transit to electric vehicles by 2035 for... $56B - $89B, per CTE study (link).



Here's Elon Musk, hosting the Saturday Night Live on May 8th. Not much about EVs, but entertaining to see the 'memelord' and 'dogefather' in roles. You should be able to see the whole list of Musk's sketches by clicking on the Youtube link above.

The other EV-makers saw this as an opportunity to get eyes on their cars too - buying ad spots between the SNL sketches. VW showed off its ID.4, Ford its Mustang Mach-e, Volvo's XC90 PHEV appeared and also Lucid Air (link)

Meanwhile - $DOGE has been popping and Faheem & I are laughing (through sadness) about selling the $50 of Doge we bought for the winner of SPAC MADNESS, the game we invented in March. The price was $0,05 back then and it reached about 13x before falling to ~8x now. So our prize would've been $650 instead of $50, oh well.

Biden to visit Ford’s Rouge EV Complex in Dearborn on May 18th, a day before the Lightning, Ford's electric F150 truck, will be unveiled. (link) I'm hoping we'll hear more about the $174B proposal of the EV push. Here's the teaser Ford released about its new Lightning (video)



I think we can call this an EV ad. Bill Nye The Science Guy heads to the track and garage to explain how the Taycan is able to be driven hard time and again on a single charge. This 5-episode list is worth to check out. ✔️

SUBARU teases the first electric SUV will be named Solterra and coming to the US in 2022 (link)

Here's GMC Hummer EV off-road testing on the MOAB trails (video). I don't see anything a Rivian R1S couldn't do so far. Hummer claims to be the world's first all-electric supertruck.

Talking of Rivian, the Owner's forum found an example of R1T with a winch in front (link)

Something new: Baltasar Revolt EV for track racing premiere. €230k gets you 500bhp, 1000Nm torque, 2,5s 0-60mph and weighing only 770kg (1,700lb). Deliveries next year and a design-focused around formula one driving (video).

SONO MOTORS, the solar EV startup, signed a letter of intent to investigate integrating solar panels to the MANs eTGE electric vans (link). This is probably the first of many, as CEO Laurin Hahn has mentioned their idea of licensing the solar-integration tech to other automakers before.

BMW brought in Hans Zimmer, the composer for Lion King and Pirates of the Caribbean among others, to give the M versions of the upcoming BMW i4 cars a distinctive sound (video).

Teaser of new electric Polaris Ranger UTV tow a fully loaded logging truck (video).

RIVIAN features a 7-day, 1,000-mile return policy for their R1T truck and R1S SUV. It's notable, because it doesn't matter if you've driven the vehicle or not, unlike Tesla's return policy (link). They also released more specs of the R1T (link).

The 3rd-party Tesla Cybertruck's camper system, Cyberlandr has received over $50M worth of orders, all before the real production of either (link).

KIA EV6 now available to order in Europe (link).

Here's Franz von Holzhausen testing the Arcimoto FUV, a three-wheeler I personally think is awesome (link).



Image: Adamas Intelligence

Tesla consumed more Lithium in 2020 than the next four EV makers, BYD, VW, Renault and Audi, combined. 67% of Tesla's 18,7t of lithium consumption fell to the Model 3, 17% to the Model Y and the remaining 16% to S+X. (link)

Tesla's Giga Berlin's new plans that now include the battery factory, got positive feedback from Brandenburg Prime Minister Dietmar Woidke. "We have already ordered most of the equipment for battery production in Berlin," said Musk. There have been reports of the completion of Giga Berlin being pushed 6 months due to numerous constraints, but a Teslarati exclusive gets a different view by Jörg Steinbach, the German Economic Minister of the State of Brandenburg (link):

“I don’t have the faintest idea of how anyone can come up with a six-month delay. If nothing happens out of the ordinary, I still expect a start of production in late Summer or Early Autumn.”

NIO will shift to Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) batteries by CATL on its entry-level EVs to cut costs, much like Tesla's M3 in China (link).

BMW Group started production of battery components at its plants in Leipzig and Regensburg and expanding its e-drive production network. More than €250M ($300M) will be invested in these two locations for EV supply (link).

CATL leads the global EV battery capacity shipped in Q1 2021 with 15,1GWh or 31,5% of the global output, LG Chem is at 9,8GWh or 20,5% of the output, and Panasonic with 8GWh or 16,7% of the output. Others are <10%. Why is CATL winning all of a sudden? Probably because it produces the cheaper cobalt-free LFP batteries that Panasonic and LG Chem do not. (link)

Solid Power, the solid-state battery developer, closed a $130M Series B round, led by BMW, Ford and Volta Energy Technologies (link). So now we know that Solid Power will be behind the BMW demo solid-state battery vehicle before 2025. *jots down yet another connection*

LG CHEM launched a new carbon nanotube (CNT, used for cathode in EV batteries) plant in Korea, largest of its kind (link).

ULTIUM CELLS LLC (GM & LG joint venture) announced an agreement with Li-Cycle to recycle up to 100 percent of the material scrap from battery cell manufacturing (link).

STOREDOT signed an agreement with NASA to launch the first space-based battery research initiative for its fast-charging batteries (link).

WORKHORSE will use CATL batteries for its C-650 and C-1000 models starting this quarter (link).



GM's ultium charge 360 network across US
Image: GM

General Motors launched the Ultium Charge 360, providing access to ~60k plugs across US and Canada from the  seven major charging providers: Blink Charging, ChargePoint, EV Connect, EVgo, FLO, Greenlots and SemaConnect. The first three GM+EVgo sites are also live now, nine months after committing to add 2,7k fast chargers by the end of 2025. (link) While I applaud the 'consolidation' for easy use of different charging stations from the owner's perspective, there will always be misaligned incentives from the EV maker side using 3rd party networks (recently discussed this a bit on Twitter).

Electrify America announced $200M in California Zero Emission Vehicle infrastructure and education programs over the next 30 months as the third part of its 10-year commitment (due to #dieselgate settlement) of $800M investment in the state (link).

ChargePoint integrates with Android Auto now (link).

Let's go - Tesla Supercharger now at Mount Everest's base camp (link). And this week - Tesla reached 25k supercharging stalls installed worldwide:

Wallbox, the European EVSE supplier, is looking for a spot for a US manufacturing facility (link).

Ausgrid, an Australian electricity utility company, is converting some of its 13k street-side power kiosks into EV chargers (link).

Blink Charging acquired Blue Corner, the European charging operator with its 7k+ charging ports, for €20M (~$24M) (link).

Mobility, the Swiss car-sharing provider, is to make all its cars electric by 2030 and add at least 300 charging stations by 2023 (link).

France will drop the CHADeMo standard as it will be not mandatory to add it to the fast-charging stations anymore (link).



NIO's complex
caption for image

NIO will build a massive 68.6M square meter (nearly 17k acres) NeoPark, a smart EV industry park in Hefei, China. In comparison, that's 12 times the size of Tesla's Fremont plant. With $7,7B in investments planned for the first phase, the park would have jobs for 10k R&D personnel and 40k technical workers, outputting 1 million EVs and 100GWh in battery packs a year. (link) Another little connection node for you - Hefei is the capital of Anhui Province, the same location Volkswagen is building its new MEB platform plant as a joint venture with JAC, which will be completed by mid-2022 (link).

GM to invest $1B in a manufacturing complex in Mexico to build electric vehicles. United Auto Workers doesn't like it and lobbies against. (link).

An expansion is currently underway at the Teslas Grohmann Automation site in Prüm, Germany (tweet).

Mercedes-Benz EQS started production at Factory 56 in the Sindelfingen plant (link).

LION ELECTRIC will build a US plant in Joliet Illinois, becoming the largest electric medium-and heavy-duty vehicles plant in US (pdf). The electric commercial urban truck, bus and minibus maker, also listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange under TSX: $LEV (link).



Rivian's team

Rivian is hiring Event Team Managers for its 4-month summer test drive tours (link). No better way to give the customers a taste of the vehicle. Uh, wouldn't mind moving to US for this very job only.

Field Specialists to handle deliveries and field operations across the United States (link).

Blink named Brendan Jones, its (previously) COO as the company's new President and is added to the Board of Directors. Jones has experience as the COO of Electrify America, as VP of OEM strategy and Development in EVgo and from Nissan of North America, where he also worked on the Nissan LEAF. Here's an interview via InsideEVs (link).

LUCID MOTORS appointed Sherry House as the CFO. Sherry, most recently from Waymo, has ten-year+ experience with automotive OEM, Tier 1 supplier and mobility companies (link).



A study carried out on California EV owners from 2012-2018 concluded that every fifth EV owner returned to a fossil car. Notably, 70% of those who did, didn't have access to level 2 charging, which does make the ownership more difficult. (link).

There's this guy called Param Sharma who was arrested for riding in the backseat of the Tesla on Autopilot. His reactions - I'll do it again. My reaction - Idiot. (link)



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